The Election is now over (with the minor exception of Thirsk & Malton which has been delayed by 3 weeks although if that isn't won by the Conservatives I'll gladly eat my shoe) and the results are in. The final tallies for the major parties are as follows:
The Big Three
Conservatives are now the biggest party, with 306 seats and an increase of 3.7% of the elctorate. It is worth noting that The Conservatives do not have enough seats to have an absolute majority, there are currently talks underway between them and the Liberal Democrats to form a coalition Government.
Labour lost 6.2% of the electorate and now have a total of 258 seats. Whilst this is clearly a lost result (over 960,000 voters deserted Labour) Gordon Brown is still the Prime Minister and will stay on until a majority Government is formed. Interesting times.
Liberal Democrats oddly gained 1.0% of the votes but lost five seats and are now have 57 MPs. The Clegg mania boost never happened, proving we must take the polls with a pinch of salt although the exit polls were amazingly close. If this result doesn't show the problem with first past the post I don't know what does (for every additional seat the Conservatives won they had an extra 19,801 votes, going by the same figure the Lib Dems should have won an additional 43 seats!)
National Parties (Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland)
Scottish National Party had a slight increase in votes (up 0.14%), but ended with the same 6 seats as before. In Scotland the overall seats is exactly the same as in 2005, with Labour actually increasing their vote share, proving Scottish politics is a long way from politics in the rest of England and Wales.
Plaid Cymru lost nearly 9,000 votes in total, but managed to gain a seat and now have 3 MPs.
Democratic Unionist Party saw a small fall in votes throughout Northern Ireland, but the only one that mattered was leader Peter Robinson losing his seat to the Alliance Party. Was this a triumph for the anti-sectarian party or was it simply the prudish voters showing their dissatisfaction with the sex-scandal that rocked the party (involving Robinsons wife and her younger lover). This is the only seat lost that can be clearly linked to sleaze - the expenses scandal turned out to be a red herring.
Sinn Fein lost a few votes, but still have 5 seats (which they won't take up) in Parliament.
SDLP keep their 3 seats.
Ulster Unionist Party the support fell away completely with the only seat won in 2005 lost to the same MP, Dame Sylvia Hermon, who left the party following it's closer ties to the Conservatives.
Alliance finally entered mainstream politics, winning a seat in Belfast East.
Other Parties
Respect lost over half their votes from the 2005 election and their one seat. Don't expect Respect to come back from this electoral failure.
Green leader Caroline Lucas did win in Brighton Pavillion meaning there is a presence in Westminster for the environmental lobby. The overall proportion of votes actually fell nationwide, possibly in response to greater mention of green issues in the main three parties manifestos.
UK Independence Party increase of overal voting share by 0.8%, but no seats for the party.
British National Party also saw an increase wih nearly 2% of voters thinking their far right policies are relevant in modern Britain. I'm disgusted.
Socialist Labour Party vote collapsed.
Liberal vote collapsed.
Independents
There was an overall increase in votes for the independents and smaller parties, with 1.4% of votes not going to anyone mentioned above. Saying that these votes were extremely spread with only Sylvia Hermon getting enough to win a seat. Both Richard Taylor in Wyre Forest and Dai Davis in Bleanau Gwent lost their seats.
Sunday, 9 May 2010
Election 2010 - The results
Thursday, 6 May 2010
Election Live Blogging
05:42 The BBC have given a final prediction. With 500 seats announced. Hung Parliament, with neither the Conservative plus th Unionists or Labour plus the Lib Dems making a majority. This is a rare first indeed. We shall see what happens over the next few days. I'm signing out. Will try to get a few minutes of sleep.
04:54 Labour have begun to slowly tear themselves apart... And Charles Clarke is out.
04:44 My guy won for the seat I voted. So that's something.
04:22 I'm still here. Still listening. Still falling behind I'm on 150, the nation is on 350. Although frankly I'm on the same sort of predictions.
New Predicted Government: Conservative (Hung)
Labour: Current seats- 64, Predicted seats- 270
Conservative: Current seats- 58, Predicted seats- 288
Lib Dems: Current seats- 10, Predicted seats- 62
DUP: Current seats- 6, Predicted seats- 8
SNP: Current seats- 3, Predicted seats- 7
Sinn Fein: Current seats- 2, Predicted seats- 5
Plaid Cymru: Current seats- 3, Predicted seats- 3
SDLP: Current seats- 2, Predicted seats- 3
UUP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
Respect: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 1
People's Voice: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
Independent Community Health Concern: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 1
UKIP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
Green: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
BNP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
Others: Current seats- 2, Predicted seats- 2
03:23 Still going on. I'm about 131 seats behind here. But the overall story is about right - still looking like a hung Parliament.
New Predicted Government: Conservative (Hung)
Labour: Current seats- 48, Predicted seats- 272
Conservative: Current seats- 37, Predicted seats- 287
Lib Dems: Current seats- 4, Predicted seats- 61
DUP: Current seats- 6, Predicted seats- 8
SNP: Current seats- 2, Predicted seats- 7
Sinn Fein: Current seats- 2, Predicted seats- 5
Plaid Cymru: Current seats- 2, Predicted seats- 3
SDLP: Current seats- 1, Predicted seats- 3
UUP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
Respect: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 1
People's Voice: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
Independent Community Health Concern: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 1
UKIP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
Green: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
BNP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
Others: Current seats- 2, Predicted seats- 2
02:51 Here's where I am now, it's still all too close to call
New Predicted Government: Conservative (Hung)
Labour: Current seats- 38, Predicted seats- 279
Conservative: Current seats- 21, Predicted seats- 280
Lib Dems: Current seats- 3, Predicted seats- 59
DUP: Current seats- 5, Predicted seats- 8
SNP: Current seats- 1, Predicted seats- 7
Sinn Fein: Current seats- 2, Predicted seats- 5
Plaid Cymru: Current seats- 1, Predicted seats- 4
SDLP: Current seats- 1, Predicted seats- 3
UUP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
Respect: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 1
People's Voice: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 1
Independent Community Health Concern: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 1
UKIP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
Green: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
BNP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
Others: Current seats- 2, Predicted seats- 2
02:26 Am dropping my stats - just can't keep up. But definitely looking like a hung Parliament right now, with no increase for the Lib Dems. Very odd compared to the polls.
02:17 Labour hold Glasgow C, Swansea East, Airderie & Shotts, Bishop Auckland, Livingstone, Cumbernauld, Halton, Barnsley Central and win Glasgow East Conservative hold Worcestershire Mid, Devon East, Charnwood, Hertford, Paisley, Kettering, Castle Point and gain Aberconwy, SNP hold Dundee East, Angus
02:02 Conservative hold Guildford, Newbury, Conservative gain Loughborough, Labour hold Inverclyde, Islwyn, Kilmarnock, Lanark & Hamilton East, Newport East
New Predicted Government: Conservative (Hung)
Labour: Current seats- 29, Predicted seats- 279
Conservative: Current seats- 10, Predicted seats- 281
Lib Dems: Current seats- 3, Predicted seats- 58
DUP: Current seats- 4, Predicted seats- 8
SNP: Current seats- 1, Predicted seats- 7
Sinn Fein: Current seats- 2, Predicted seats- 5
Plaid Cymru: Current seats- 1, Predicted seats- 4
SDLP: Current seats- 1, Predicted seats- 3
UUP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
Respect: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 1
People's Voice: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 1
Independent Community Health Concern: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 1
UKIP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
Green: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
BNP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
Others: Current seats- 2, Predicted seats- 2
01:43 This is madness - how can I possibly keep up... Conservative gain Battersea, SDLP hold Belfast South, Conservative hold Christchurch, Clacton, Labour hold Clywd South, Dundee West, East Lothian, Falkirk, Gedling, Glenrothes DUP hold East Antrim, SNP hold Na H-Eileanan An lar
At that point:
New Predicted Government: Conservative (Hung)
Labour: Current seats- 24, Predicted seats- 272
Conservative: Current seats- 7, Predicted seats- 288
Lib Dems: Current seats- 3, Predicted seats- 58
DUP: Current seats- 4, Predicted seats- 8
SNP: Current seats- 1, Predicted seats- 7
Sinn Fein: Current seats- 2, Predicted seats- 5
Plaid Cymru: Current seats- 1, Predicted seats- 4
SDLP: Current seats- 1, Predicted seats- 3
UUP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
Respect: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 1
People's Voice: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 1
Independent Community Health Concern: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 1
UKIP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
Green: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
BNP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
Others: Current seats- 2, Predicted seats- 2
01:32 Labour hold City of Durham
01:29 Lib Dem hold Fife
01:27 Sinn Fein hold Belfast West, Labour hold East Kilbride
01:25 Labour hold Vale of Clywd.
Now looking at a Conservative led hung Parliament - just
New Predicted Government: Conservative (Hung)
Labour: Current seats- 11, Predicted seats- 243
Conservative: Current seats- 4, Predicted seats- 315
Lib Dems: Current seats- 2, Predicted seats- 62
DUP: Current seats- 3, Predicted seats- 7
SNP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 6
Sinn Fein: Current seats- 1, Predicted seats- 6
Plaid Cymru: Current seats- 1, Predicted seats- 3
SDLP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 3
UUP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
Respect: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 1
People's Voice: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 1
Independent Community Health Concern: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 1
UKIP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
Green: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
BNP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
Others: Current seats- 2, Predicted seats- 2
01:20 Coming through thick and fast. Labour hold Ynys Mon, Sedgefield. Conservative hold Filton & Bradley Stoke. Independent gain in North Down.
01:12 Labour hold Easington and Motherwell, Lib Dem hold Tobay
01:05 Conservative hold Broxbourne, Labour Hold Rutherglen
01:03 Conservative gain Kingswood off Labour
00:59 DUP hold Lagan Valley, Plaid Cymru take Arfon off Labour
00:50 Labour hold Darlington & Durham North, Lib Dem hold Thornbury & Yate
00:47 Alliance win Belfast East - that's a historic win for Alliance, and the loss of the leader of the DUP. Incredibly shocking.
00:42 DUP hold North Antrim
00:38 Sinn Fein hold West Tyrone
00:19 More stories of scuffles and voters turned away. The Electoral Commission have announced a thorough review.
00:17 Just desperate for some more news - we're all on tenterhooks waiting from some marginal results.
00:16 Anyone there?
23:55 Tomorrow's headlines. Tiny Conservative win. Increased turnout. Voters turned away from polls.
23:41 Labour hold Sunderland Central
23:30 The pound is strengthening following early results which may indicate a Tory win.
23:25 Labour Hold Washington & Sunderland West
23:24 We're drifting around the country on the Radio, with no results
23:11 Hariett Harmon is already talking up voting reform. Is she worried about losing?
22:51 Labour hold Houghton & Sunderland South.
Significant swing, though which would indicate a Conservative Government.
New Predicted Government: Conservative
Labour: Current seats- 1, Predicted seats- 212
Conservative: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 343
Lib Dems: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 65
DUP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 9
SNP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 5
Sinn Fein: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 5
Plaid Cymru: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 4
SDLP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 3
UUP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 1
Respect: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 1
People's Voice: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 1
Independent Community Health Concern: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 1
UKIP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
Green: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
BNP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
Others: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
22:50 Houghton & Sunderland South are the first to announce.
22:44 Arnie has called David Cameron to congratulate him - a little forward but it's good to know he cares.
22:38 I lied about Northern Ireland - they are coming in tonight. Some of the parties could well be the holding the balance of power tomorrow morning.
22:35 Houghton & Sunderland South crossing their fingers to be the first result...
22:25 Stories of massive queues at polling stations and voters being turned away. I hesistate to say they should have gone earlier, and the turning away is shocking - anyone would think we're in some tin pot dictatorship. Great news for democracy, mind.
22:23 No news yet. But I have brought the cheese plate into the room. I'm thinking a bite of Stilton blue for every Tory gain, and yellow Cheddar for the Lib Dems.
22:14 The digital media are a bit obsessed with what happens with a hung Parliament, and what happens next to Gordon Brown. It's beginning to get a little boring.
22:08 By the way I'm blogging with the aid of the BBC - listening to Radio 4 and watching the website. Thanks Auntie
22:05 The exit polls are indicating a hung Parliament, which sounds about right, but they're also predicting a fall in seats for the Lib Dems! Lets see...
Polls are closed
That's it. Last votes are being cast right now (if you have the form in your hand you can take as long as you like to decide, otherwise you're too late).
Right now, with no votes counted the theoretical nominal distributions of seats is as follows:
New Predicted Government: Labour
Labour: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 349
Conservative: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 210
Lib Dems: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 62
DUP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 9
SNP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 6
Sinn Fein: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 5
Plaid Cymru: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 2
SDLP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 3
UUP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 1
Respect: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 1
People's Voice: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 1
Independent Community Health Concern: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 1
UKIP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
Green: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
BNP: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
Others: Current seats- 0, Predicted seats- 0
But we'll be updating this through the night (in fact as soon as the first result is called). I'll be showing these stats whenever my prediction for the new Government changes, or at least every 13 declarations (2%). Bare in mind Thirsk & Malton (Conservative) won't be coming for 3 weeks, the Northern Ireland votes won't be counted until tomorrow daytime as will up to 25 UK counts* (it is theoretical the decision of the returning officer to start the count any time within 12 hours of the closing of the polls) and it could be mid Saturday before the last recount is accepted, like Harlow (Labour) in 2005.
First result should be in about three quarters of an hour - the record is 43 minutes by Sunderland South in 2001. I'll start the live blogging in about 30 minutes. See you then.
* These probably include Conservative targets: Argyll & Bute, Cheltenham, Copeland, Lancaster & Fleetwood, Morecombe & Lunsdale, Oxford West, Warwick & Leamington and Westmorland
Polls are Open
The polls have just opened.
Get down to your local polling station and vote - you owe it to yourself.
Monday, 3 May 2010
UK General Election 2010 - An introduction
On Thursday the electorate of the United Kingdom will face the polls (with the exception of the 15% of us who are postal voters), over 650 constiuencies. We must all, individually decide whether to support our current Government or vote for a change in representation at local or national level. This post is designed to give you a quick rundown of the parties involved, some key seats and a background to the UK voting system.
Constituencies
In the UK we have a multiple party first past the post system. In effect that means we have 650 different elections, and in each area they will elect one member of parliament who will effectively represent them in the House of Commons. The first past the post system is designed to make it easier for clear majorities to be won. In 2005 68% of votes went to the two biggest parties and gained them 86% of the seats.
In order for one party to hold a majority they need to win 326 (half) of these seats - failure to do so will result in a hung parliament and a coalition of parties holding the balance of power. It is unsure how this balance will look if a hung parliament is the result. If a party has an overall majority then the Prime Minister will be the party leader, if no overall majority then current PM Gordon Brown will remain in the job until a coalition is formed which either supports him or rejects him. It is worth noting that the election is for the party, not the leader who is selected by the party they are members of (Gordon Brown, for instance took the party over following Tony Blair's resignation and this is the first time he has faced an election as party leader).
Since the 2005 General Election the independent Electoral Commission has changed the boundaries on a large number of constituencies and added 4 more in England. This means that all the statistics and estimates that I (and all the major election observers) make are based on nominal results, the 2005 results based on what the bounderies are now. This is essentially calculated guesswork, so take any of my predictions with a pince of salt.
The Big Three
Labour is currently the ruling party, winning 356 seats at the last General Election, the party have been in power since the decisive 1997 Election. The leader is Gordon Brown, MP for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath. The parties roots are in socialist ideals, although since the creation of "New Labour" that message has become diluted. Opinion polls right now indicate a large fall in support, with the party set to lose over 100 seats and to no longer be the largest.
Conservatives are the main opposition party, with 198 seats at 2005. They have also gained 2 additional seats in by-elections since then. Prior to Labours 1997 victory the Conservatives had been in power for 18 years. The leader is David Cameron, MP for Witney. The Tories are generally to the right of Labour, with a majority support from business and white-collar workers. They are expected to become the largest party at the end of the week, but may not have enough for a majority in the House. Expect an additional 80 seats.
Liberal Democrats are the third party, which is a first past the post system leaves them at a major disadvantage. In 2005 they had 22% of the popular votes, but less than 10% (62) of the seats. The leader is Nick Clegg (Sheffield Hallam). If you first imagined hand-wringing Guardianista's supporting them then you're on the right tracks - not as militant as Labour the party is a strong supporter of redistributive tax policies. The TV election debates have done wonders for raising the profile of the party, and it should lead to an additional 30 plus seats.
National Parties (Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland)
One of the unique aspects of British society is the impact of the Union. Devolution has meant that in the various nations we have parties that represent the people of their individual nations. In Scotland and Wales these parties fight against the top three, in Northern Ireland they are sole representatives.
Scottish National Party fairly obviously represent Scottish voters. In 2005 they had 6 MPs. Alex Salmond, the leader of the party is not standing for election in Westminster as he is also the first minister of the devolved Scottish Parliament, Angus Robertson (Moray) will be the leader of the SNP in Westminster. The SNP can be described as a centre-left party committed to Scottish independence. The polls are generally useless for estimating the impact of smaller parties, but gaining Ochill & South Perthshire should be an easy win.
Plaid Cymru or the Party of Wales. They won 3 seats in 2005, but the boundary changes meant they have only a notional 2 at the start of this election campaign. The leader is Westminster in Elfyn Llwyd (Dwyfor Meironnydd). Like the SNP it's a centre-left party committed to Welsh independence. Expect gains in Arfon and Ynys Mon.
Democratic Unionist Party is the largest party in Northern Ireland with 9 seats. Generally considered to be a hardline unionist group they have been sucessfully leading the Northern Ireland Assembly. It is unclear what the effect of this election (and of the recent revelations of it's leader Peter Robinson) will be.
Sinn Fein are the main voice for Irish republicanism. The part have historically refused to take the oath to the Queen required to sit in the house, therefore in spite of winning 5 seats at the last election they have no voice in Westminster. Again we have no way of second guessing how many seats they will win.
SDLP are the more moderate republicans, who do sit in Westminster and have historically been closely aligned with the Labour party. They currently have 3 seats.
Ulster Unionist Party or the Conservative party in Ireland are a more moderate unionist group than the DUP. Thy won only one seat in 2005, but the Tories will be hoping for a increase in support at this election.
Alliance are the fifth party in Northern Ireland, closely linked to the Lieral Democrats. Their main aim is to separate sectarian divides from Northern Ireland politics. They have no seats, and are very unlikely to gain one at this election.
Other Parties
Respect are an offshoot of the Labour party, formed following the invasion of Iraq to oppose that war. They hold one seat - Bethnal Green - and have a strong following in other areas of East London, but are not exected to increase their representation.
Green are not as big a force in the UK as in many other European contries. As well as strong environmental policies the Greens also espouse socialist policies. The leader, Caroline Lucas, has a good chance of winning in Brighton Pavillion.
UK Independence Party largely a group of well meaning amateurs UKIP still managed over 600,000 votes at the last election with their single policy of exiting the European Union. Whilst the total votes are likely to increase winning a seat is still a long way away. The parties strongest hopes are Buckingham, where they're fighting the speaker of the house and Boston & Skegness.
British National Party the one party that I would urge you not to vote for. Their far-right xenophobic policies do not belong in modern politics. Nevertheless support for them has increased in recent years, and they now have representation in the European Parliament. Their key battlegrounds are Barking, West Bromwich West and Burnley.
Socialist Labour Party does what it says on the tin. They field a lot of candidates but are not expected to come close to any seats.
Liberal essentially formed when the Liberal Democrats were created they syphon a few votes off their more successful Liberal brethren but are little more than a side show. Oddly did well in Liverpool West Derby, but nowhere near well enough to win a seat.
Independents
We have a strong history of independent candidates in the UK, with the results of many seats being affected by them, if not actually won by them. There are currently 2 independent MPs: Richard Taylor of Wyre Forest (standing as the Independent Community Health Concern) he was elected on the ticket to save his local hospital and Dai Davies of Blaenau Gwent (standing as People's Voice) who stood following the death of Peter Law (also People's Voice) a local disgruntled Labour member. Both Taylor and Davies look vulnerable to losing their seats at this election. Other seats which had strongly rated independent candidates at the last election include Burnley, Mansfield, West Tyrone and Ynys Mon.
Interesting Seats
There are a number of seats that will prove interesting in this election, and they really come into 3 different groupings.
Target seats
As the only real alternative to a Labour Government all eyes will be on the Conservative party gains. If we assume that the only party the Tories can make their gains from are Labour (not totally unlikely given the Lib Dem boost) then the 116 constituencies which Labour hold the smallest majority over the Conservatives will be the ones the Tories need to win. The easiest gain will be Gillingham & Rainham where Labour have a majority of just 37 votes, but the rest are as follows: Crawley, Harlow, Croydon Central, Portsmouth North, Battersea, Hove, Milton Keynes North, Dartford, Stroud, Basildon South, City of Chester, Ealing Central and Acton, Cardiff North, Colne Valley, Hastings & Rye, Calder Valley, Milton Keynes South, Stourbridge, Corby, Vale of Glamorgan, Swindon South, Dorset South, High Peak, Northampton South, Loughborough, Aberconwy, Birmingham Edgbaston, Stafford, Broxtowe, Burton, Brighton Kemptown, Bury North, Redditch, Rugby, Pendle, Wolverhampton SW, Carmarthen West, Derbyshire South, South Ribble, Bristol North West, Dumfries & Galloway, Tamworth, Cleethorpes, Swindon North, Westminster North, Worcester, Harrow East, Great Yarmouth, Eltham, Brigg & Goole, Bedford, Hendon, Stevenage, Bradford West, Brentford & Isleworth, Chatham & Aylesford, Hammersmith, Rossendale & Darwen, Blackpool North, Halifax, Lancaster & Fleetwood, Dewsbury, Dudley South, Northampton North, Warrington South, Wirral South, Leicestershire NW, Lincoln, Gedling, Halesowen, Nuneaton, Dover, Warwick & Leamington, Keighley, Poplar & Limehouse, Stirling, Plymouth Sutton, Dudley North, Reading West, Elmet & Rothwell, Pudsey, Tynemouth, Ipswich, Morecombe & Lunesdale, Bolton North East, Bolton West, Sefton Central, Waveney, Tooting, Amber Valley, Barrow & Furness, Gloucester, Thurrock, Brighton Pavillion, Copeland, Carlisle, Stockton South, Batley & Spen, Hyndburn, Kingswood, Renfrewshire East, Weaver Vale, Lancashire West, Vale of Clywd, Derby North, Luton South, Telford, Coventry South, Newport West, Warwickshire North, Crewe & Nantwich, Leeds North East, Erewash, Dagenham & Rainham and Sherwood. In Sherwood the Conservatives have to overcome a majority of 6,652 seats.
At the same time the Conservatives will need to fight a rear guard action against the Liberal Democrats. Could lead for an interesting race.
Unusual Seats
A number of seats wil have unusual outcomes due to other factors these include:
North Down, where existing UUP MP Sylvia Hermon is running as an independent in protest to the closer ties with the Conservative party.
Stockton North, where existing Labour MP Frank Cook is running as an independent following his deselection.
Fermanagh & South Tyrone, where the DUP and UUP have stood down to allow independent candidate Joh Stevenson to stand against Sinn Fein.
Ayrshire North & Arran, the conservative candidate Philip Lardner has been deselected following homophobic comments on his website. The Conservatives now have no candidate here.
Thirsk & Malton, the election here has been postponed for three weeks in deference to the untimely death of UKIP candidate John Boakes.
Glasgow NE and Buckingham are the seats of the former and new Speaker of the House. As the speaker is technically independent from party politics the other 2 main parties tend not to stand against them, where the speaker has transferred from Labour to Conservative this will have the effect of slightly accentuating the swing between those parties. Although both are safe seats.
MPs Expenses Scandal
Perhaps the most difficult to predict aspect of this election is the expenses scandal which rocked confidence in the political process, led to high proportions of MPs paying back their claims. It was thought, prior to the TV debates, that this would dramatically reduce the proportion of the electorate who actually vote and therefore affect the results in unexpected ways. It could still lead to a rise in votes for the smaller and independent candidates, even though there is an unprecedented number of MPs standing down at this election (145). TV personality Esther Rantzen, for instance, is standing in Luton South under the clean Parliament ticket. Other seats which could fluctuate due the scandal include Bury North, Livingston and Scunthorpe where the sitting MPs have all been charged of theft by false accounting, and Feltham & Heston and Salford & Eccles where high profile MPs are still standing.
Well that's my guide. I hope you all join me on Thursday for my live-blogging.
Cheers
Thursday, 29 April 2010
Personal - 2010 Election
I've just voted.
In one week from today here in the UK we will be having the most exciting, close and important election in possibly over 20 years.
I'm a postal voter (as an actor I never know where I'm going to be so my parents forward my voting form to me), this means I get the form earlier and must send it off earlier.
I suddenly feel like a giddy teenager. It's fair to say that having an opportunity to vote, to influence in some small way the future of my Government, is something that I relish.
On Monday I will be writing a brief guide to the parties - mainly for you non-Brit readers and I will attempt to be impartial - and on Thursday night I will live blog the election in full, from the polls closing at 10 until we have a result - whatever that result will be.
I hope to see you all over the next few days.
